Since February this year, many European countries have chosen to coexist with the virus one after another, and have loosened their epidemic policies one after another.
Oxford University conducts a rigorous analysis of the epidemic prevention policies of countries around the world based on nine indicators, including whether schools are closed, whether public activities are canceled, and whether public gatherings are restricted. The higher the score, the stricter the epidemic prevention policy.
According to its latest data, the UK began to lift the epidemic prevention policy in mid-January this year. On January 19, the strictness index of the epidemic prevention policy was 48.61, and by April 7, it had dropped to 12.96, the lowest value in the past two years. At present, those who test positive for nucleic acid in the UK do not need to be quarantined according to law, and the government no longer continues to track close contacts, and has also cancelled the requirement to wear masks in closed places.
France, Germany, the Netherlands and other countries have also continued to decline in the strictness index of epidemic prevention policies. France is 19.44, the Netherlands is 23.15, and Germany is 50.93 (Germany was still 80.42 a month ago).
So, after the epidemic prevention policy is loosened, will life in these countries return to before the epidemic?
Hospital resources are still tight
On the whole, the current round of the global epidemic is in a declining stage.
As of April 12, the number of new diagnoses per million people in a single day was 130 (7-day average), compared with the previous peak of 436 (January 24); the number of new deaths in a single day is also declining. , On April 12, the number of new deaths in a single day per million people in the world was 0.41, the previous highest value was 1.39 (February 10).
Nonetheless, deaths and hospitalizations are increasing in some countries due to lags.
As of April 11, the number of new deaths in the UK in a single day was 198 (7-day average), a 90% increase from a month ago (March 11).
The number of new deaths in a single day in Germany also started to rise again from February 8. The number of new deaths on February 8 was 138 (7-day average), and on April 12, the number of new deaths in a single day increased. to 287 people.
The number of hospitalizations of coronavirus patients in France has rebounded. From February 7 to the end of March, the number of hospitalizations had been declining, but after March 27, the number of hospitalizations also climbed again, and as of April 12, the number of hospitalizations had reached 24,693.
The number of people hospitalised with the new coronavirus in the UK is now at its highest in 2022, with more than 20,000 people hospitalised. There had been a downward trend on January 10, and it dropped to more than 10,000 people in early March, but with the cancellation of the epidemic prevention policy, the number of hospitalizations increased again. This will not only increase the pressure on the medical system, but will also affect the treatment of some non-COVID-19 patients.
At the end of March, the vacancy rate of hospital beds in the UK was only about 5%, of which the occupancy rate of beds for new crown patients was about 14.7%, and it is still increasing. The previous highest value was around January 18, 2021, and the bed occupancy rate for new crown patients was close to 31.4%.
Tight medical resources also include the number of medical staff.
According to the latest data released by the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom, after mid-March, more than 20,000 medical staff in the UK are unable to work due to the new crown infection every day. Combined with other factors, an average of about 65,000 healthcare workers are out of work every day in the UK.
Patricia Marquis, director of the Royal College of Nursing, said in an interview that due to the new crown epidemic, the absenteeism rate of NHS staff has risen sharply recently, which has risen by more than 80% compared with last month, and the hospital is facing a shortage of staff. Problems with higher bed occupancy.
high absenteeism
Although the government has relaxed the epidemic prevention policy, this does not mean that the whole body is immune to the virus.
Since the gradual removal of masks in France, the number of new crown cases has rebounded, and the number of absent employees has also continued to rise. According to the latest data released by the French Association for Human Resource Management (ANDRH), the company currently has an average daily absentee rate of 10% to 15%. %.
In the UK, not only the hospitals mentioned above, but all walks of life are still affected by the virus, and people's lives have not fully recovered.
The Office for National Statistics, based on data from December 5, 2021 to January 29, 2022, found that absenteeism across all industries will increase in March. Among them, the field of "education and teaching" has been greatly affected, and the proportion of employees self-isolating reached 3.8% on March 26.
Although schools have gradually opened, school staff have been unable to work due to the virus or close contact. According to the latest data released by the British Department for Education (DfE), the "hardest-hit areas" currently affected by the epidemic are secondary schools, and about one-fifth of the schools have a teacher absence rate of more than 15%.
Teacher-to-staff absenteeism ratios in UK schools have gradually increased since January this year and reached a peak on January 28. Absences eased briefly in February, but rebounded again in March with the implementation of the "Live With Virus" policy.
Paul Whiteman, secretary general of the British Principals Association, said in an interview, "We all thought 'coexisting with Covid-19' would mean that the level of infections would be low, but this is clearly not the case, and absenteeism remains at an alarmingly high level."
Not only staff, but also British students continue to be affected by the epidemic and cannot attend classes as usual.
Student absenteeism peaked on January 21 this year, and declined in stages over the next month, reaching its lowest level in early March. But after March 4, the situation was serious again, and on March 24, 2.7% of students were still unable to attend classes because of the new crown.
British Airways and easyJet cancelled more than 100 flights on Saturday alone due to high levels of flight crew absenteeism. According to aviation data company Cirium, 307 flights were cancelled in the UK last week, accounting for 3% of all flights to and from the UK, which is eight times more than the same period in 2019.
Britain's Heathrow Airport is hiring 12,000 staff to prepare for the reopening of the terminal due to high absenteeism rates. Meanwhile, other industries are filling job gaps. According to the ONS, 16 of the 28 online job ad categories saw an increase in the latest week, with "travel and tourism" seeing the biggest weekly increase (11%).
According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, from January to March 2022, the total number of job vacancies in the UK reached 1.288 million, and the job vacancy rate reached 4.2% in February this year, the highest in nearly 20 years.
UK labour market figures show the number of people not working or seeking a job due to chronic ill health has risen by around 200,000 since the start of the pandemic; a quarter of UK companies say Covid-19 is the main reason for prolonged employee absences one.
The economic outlook is not optimistic
Economic recovery is an important reason why countries choose to "coexist with the virus".
The UK economy has recovered somewhat compared to pre-pandemic conditions (February 2020).
According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, the UK’s gross domestic product in February was already 1.5% higher than before the pandemic. Among them, human health and social work activities contributed the most to GDP growth, up 9.8% from February 2020.
The services sector was also 2.1% higher than pre-pandemic, with accommodation and food service activity the main contributor to service sector growth in February, up 8.6%. Hotels and campgrounds, in particular, saw positive growth for the first time since August 2021.
However, if compared with January, the lifting of the blockade has not brought rapid economic development, and the new crown virus still looms over British society.
UK GDP grew just 0.1% month-on-month in February, well below January's 0.8% increase. In terms of specific industries, manufacturing output fell by 0.4%, construction output fell by 0.1%, and computer, electronic and optical product manufacturing contracted by 4.3%. In the service sector, growth in February was mainly driven by travel agencies, tour operators and other booking services and related activities, with consumer-facing services still 5.2% below pre-pandemic levels.
Moreover, affected by the epidemic and the situation in Ukraine, while the economy is growing slowly, prices are rising.
According to statistics, the UK CPIH (the consumer price index including the cost of housing for owner-occupiers) rose 0.9% in March, and in the past year, the UK CPIH rose 6.2%, the largest increase since January 2006. 12 months.
Among them, the UK transport price rose by 2.4% between February and March 2022 due to the increase in global energy and commodity prices due to the situation in Ukraine; the average petrol price increased by 12.6p per litre, the highest rate in the UK since 1990 Biggest monthly gain; kerosene for home heating rose 44%;
Not only the United Kingdom, but France's March CPI increased by 4.5% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 1.4%, the highest since 1980; Germany's March CPI rose by 7.3% year-on-year; and the annual inflation rate in the euro zone also reached 7.5% in March, both of which a record high.
High inflation and rising price levels have led to an increase in the living cost of residents, which will further affect the economic recovery of various countries. According to the statistics of the British Economic Research Institute (Gfk), the British consumer information index has fallen for four consecutive months, the lowest value since November 2020.